Why did Recep Tayyip Erdogan “finally play a dangerous game without deceiving anyone”?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan Is not really known
Be very quiet Or the very diplomacy of leaders when resolving disputes in the international arena. Although
It has earned a firm reputation as an inspiring head of state, See leader
Turkey To order
Exodus of ten ambassadors from his country Surprised many experts and diplomats in the country. If these ten ambassadors had been expelled, Ankara might have been further isolated, and it is in agony
Already out of his turbulent relationship With
L’Oden, Like the European Union. Risk of alienation
United States, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Canada, Norway and New Zealand do not seem fair. Especially since the cause is triggered [sanctionner le soutien des ambassadeurs à la libération de l’opposant politique Osman Kavala] According to observers, there is nothing to justify such a measure.

They were hanging on the lips of the Turkish president, and on Monday morning they saw Erdogan’s back pedal. Western ambassadors in Turkey “will retreat” and “be very careful in the future”, Assessed by the President of Turkey, Then dismissed the ten messengers on the spot. Why did Erdogan play a dangerous threat game and why did the Turkish president change his song?

Look elsewhere

The Turkish president is not on his first attempt and has tried a trick as old as the world: diversion. To understand why Erdogan is attacking the rest of the world, we must return to the paradox of Turkey. “Turkey is very violent The economic crisis, Supports Alligan Tayla, an expert at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). Inflation is rising and home purchasing power has never been lower. Since January 2021, the national currency has lost nearly 25% of its value against the dollar and three of its central bank governors have been fired between 2019 and 2021.

A few days before the ambassadors were sacked, the Turkish government was under surveillance by the international action group Coffee, a financial action group, for failing in its fight against money laundering and terrorist financing. Growing coffee could have repercussions for foreign investment in Ankara, exacerbating Turkey’s already tense economic situation. Foreign direct investment is already very low. From $ 19 billion in 2007 to $ 5.7 billion in 2020.

It’s hard to play with great powers if you’re isolated. Turkey wants to be a better country, but it cannot be alone. “

“It is a constant, whenever Turkey is in an internal crisis, Erdogan attacks International », Portrayed by Aligon Tayla. If the sense of Turkish patriotism is too strong and the string is rough, mobilizing the Turkish people outside will help avoid focusing on the internal crisis.

Is this method too far?

The decision to dismiss an ambassador is never trivial and is a very rare occurrence. So ten at a time, seven of them represent allies within NATO, and a few days ago G20 (This Saturday, in Rome) … hurting so many powerful people is “brave”. Alligan Tayla confirms the risks, saying that “this is Erdogan’s whole policy. He seeks to immerse and amaze world heroes. Turkey does not weigh much, so it’s amazing to be hit. ”

As for the long-term effects, the expert notes that “they are not part of Erdogan’s software.” Without really measuring the impact of these results, the latter seeks rapid success. The latter may be too expensive for him, “especially economically”, to support Alligan Tayla. The already weak Turkish currency had already fallen sharply on Monday morning.

In the G20 and Joe Biden viewfinder

Even for Erdogan’s agitation the risks were too great and the consequences would have been too great. Also, relaxation is quick and unexpected. In a message on Twitter, most of the embassies involved confirmed that they were acting in accordance with the Vienna Convention and its 41st Amendment, which shapes diplomatic relations and prohibits any interference in the host country’s internal affairs. The official Anatolian news agency reported that the reports were received “positively” by the Turkish president. Erdogan finally announced that he was abandoning the expulsion of the ten envoys in his sight.

Sarah Sreeri, project manager for the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Research (FMES), explains: “This is a very dangerous bet even for Erdogan, and he has backed down. He has a lot to lose. The expert noted that the Turkish president wants to meet for a long time. Joe Biden During the G20. In the event of a deep diplomatic crisis, the opportunity is very good and will be wasted. The international calendar should really play a role in minimizing expansion. Between the G20 this Saturday and
COP26 this Sunday, Week is one to honor the dreams of the Turkish leader: to discover the greatness of the Ottoman Empire. However, “It is difficult to play with great powers when you are isolated. Turkey wants to be a better country, but it cannot be alone, ”the researcher explains.

The first step in convincing the West that he did not want to interfere in Turkey’s internal affairs was that Erdogan “saw it as an opportunity to return without losing too much respect.” Aligon Tayla confirms: “The West does not want to add fuel to the fire because Turkey retains a strong strategic interest. However, this shows Erdogan’s weakness, which established a conflict before he gave up the first chance. “

This Monday, Turkey “avoided the worst diplomatic crisis in its recent history”, according to Sarah Sreeri, even though relations with the other G20 were polarized this Saturday: “There has been a hidden tension with NATO over the acquisition of Russian missiles by Turkey. Escaped from the worst. “And the researcher concludes:” Erdogan played a dangerous game, but in the end he did not disappoint anyone. He was a rebel, but this time he went far beyond his standards. “