Science – It is not clear whether this will be the case, but it has finally emerged, the climax Fifth wave From Govit-19. The magnitude and duration of the decline will vary depending on the indicator, but with the exception of the positive ratio all the numbers point in the right direction, from the number of cases to the message Hospitals Including intensive treatment combinations and deaths.
Of course, you should not announce success too soon, especially Variation Omicron Very contagious and its Younger brother P.A.2 Who could come to spoil the holiday at this end of the fifth wave of Govt-19. But if the figures continue to fall, we can actually see the future expected by epidemiologists in a few weeks.
In the meantime, to fully understand what is happening day by day, Le Hafost I invite you to see Latest Govt figures, But especially theirs Evolution in maps and curves. Important thing to keep in mind before continuing your reading: Data will always be published in the evening. Therefore, the figures updated on Tuesday, February 1st are the same as those released on Monday, January 31st..
You should also know that these are not statistics for the day, but are on the D-1 for the number of hospital admissions and the number of newly confirmed cases. For incidence and positive ratio, D-3 screening statistics (on test date) are used.
National Govt-19 arches
Monday, January 31, Identified by the Directorate of Health 82,657 positive cases. Not only because of the low peak since the beginning of January: we have very little to test on Sundays. But if we look at the average for a week (blue curve) with 334,260 pollutants, we see that there is a fall. Over 360,000 were registered last Monday. However, we must be careful because this decline could turn into a plateau or even a new uprising.
The figures in D-1 are practical to monitor the evolution of the infection as closely as possible, but the results vary from week to week depending on the speed of feedback. To confirm the trends, it is best to look at the data released by Santé Publique France, which shows the number of cases with a three-day delay in the screening date.
The first diagram below shows the role of the Omicron variant and the delta variant in positive events. As you can see, Omigron is in the grip, but the delta has not completely disappeared and continues to run a few thousand cases every day.
The diagrams below show the event, as well as other essential indicators for following the evolution of the epidemic.
With the exception of the positive rate (probably due to the generalization of self-examination), all indicators are low, from the incidence rate to admission to a new hospital, admission to intensive care, or hospital mortality.
To fully appreciate the latest developments, here are the same indicators, but focus on the last two months:
The meaning of different indicators
- Event rate: This is the number of cases diagnosed per 100,000 people. This is very useful because it provides a list of infections almost in real time (a few days before the symptoms appear, or even before their appearance for contact events). But it depends on the screening capabilities.
- Positive ratio: Number of positive tests compared to the total number of tests performed. This makes it possible to “control” the event rate. If there are multiple cases in one area (incidence rate), but only due to this highly developed screening, the positive rate will be lower. Conversely, if it increases, it means that the majority of those tested are positive, but above all, there are a greater number of people who fall untested and fall through the cracks. However, after the generalization of self-experiments these dynamics became difficult to read and were not calculated.
- Occupancy rate of intensive care beds in Kovit-19 patients: This is a reviewed film because it allows us to see if hospitals can manage patient attendance. This is very effective because the risk of pro is low: it is not dependent on screening and the bed stay is well reported to the authorities. Its disadvantage: there is a significant delay between contamination and passing in intensive treatment, about two to three weeks.
- Intensive care combinations and new hospitals: The average number of people entering the hospital in 7 days is consistent
- Death in hospital: As with the revival, this is a reliable indicator, but with a significant delay.
- R effective: This indicator indicates the actual “viral reproduction rate”, i.e. the number of people infected. It is calculated by epidemiologists and there is a significant delay.
During such a period of uncertainty, it is important to look at long-term trends, especially the increase or decrease rate of cases and hospital indicators. For this, it is interesting to see the evolution in a week, as a percentage of these figures:
This is the first time the event growth rate has been negative since the start of the fifth wave. Hospital admission was positive, but decreased. On the side of the Renaissance, the slowest decline than any other continues closer to the plateau.
Only if all the bars fail for several days can it be said that this 5th (or 6th) wave will truly reach its peak (if this fall continues).
Omigron variation changes the shape of the wave
With events and positives rising, why aren’t hospital indicators bright red? Again, the Omigron variant is a game changer and its severity is low. It is difficult to know to what extent this malignancy is associated with its mutations or in people who have been vaccinated and is therefore strongly protected against severe forms.
However, the suspension between cases and hospitalization or resuscitation is obvious. The diagram below shows the growth in the number of victims, hospital admissions and number of intensive care admissions compared to the maximum number reached during the second wave of Govt-19 in November 2020.
Prior to the advent of this new variant, the second wave reached a higher number of cases in early November 2020. According to hospital indicators, the peak occurred in early April 2020, at the time of the first wave.
As we can see, the difference between cases and hospital combinations or intensive care combinations is clear with Omicron. Before that, the slightest differences between the waves were visible. They are difficult to explain for sure, but can lead to many traces: The Intensity Alpha and delta types, such as the evolution of the vaccine campaign.
The map and chart below shows Omicron’s dominance across the country. Although some areas are more affected than others, This variation represents more than 92% positive cases in all regions and up to 99% in Brittany.
Map of event rate by sector
If we look at the evolution of the epidemic in a more local way, we observe a different situation, but generally declining. Only 6 departments in metropolitan France have seen their occurrence rate increase by more than 25% in a week.
In metropolitan France, keep in mind that. Although some sectors (such as Seine-Saint-Denis) fall below this limit, all sectors are at unprecedented levels of occurrence.. In contrast, the event still has more than 4,000 in more than ten sectors.
Map below Allows you to analyze the situation in your field in more detail. By focusing on the fields of Île-de-France, the positive rate rises again but promotes some caution (once again, the deployment of self-tests causes dependencies. Indicator).
Intensive treatment aggression rate diagram
According to hospital indicators, the proportion of people in the intensive care unit is now over 50% in all areas. Tensions are high in Paca, but the trend has slowed and the region has fallen below 100%.
Very effective vaccine, but it slips
How to interpret this fifth wave? It is difficult to say that the corona virus has surpassed our forecasts, but it should already be remembered that an increase is expected from the beginning of autumn with the dominance of the delta variant, which is highly contagious. Since then, the Omicron variant has come to play spoofsport.
Controlled increase in infection in mid-winter with limited measures (health pass, wearing of masks, ventilation of closed areas, etc.) is possible only through vaccination. If the vaccine does not provide 100% protection, it greatly reduces the risk of infection and greatly reduces the risk of developing severe form of Govt-19.
Today, 78% of the population is double-vaccinated. Can be seen in the map below, With differences between age groups. For example, children, unlike those aged 70-80, are vaccinated very, very low, and 99% of them have received the dose.
But we now know that the effectiveness of the vaccine against infection decreases over time, especially six months after vaccination, and is even higher with the Omigran variant. Protection against severe forms of Govit-19 is high, but still seems to be declining, especially among the elderly.
This is why many countries, including France, have launched a recall campaign. His Predictions From the end of November, the Institute Pastor estimates, a booster dose could theoretically reduce the number of hospital admissions by further reducing the risk of hospitalization of high-risk patients and reducing the risk of infection. Thus, the height of the reminder peak for those over 65 is reduced by 20%, while the reminder for all adults is reduced by 44%.
The brilliance of the Omigron variant makes this third level even more necessary. It has reached almost 52% of the population.
Vaccines against Kovit-19 are still active
The effectiveness of vaccines and the effectiveness of the third dose can be easily seen by examining the number of positive individuals who have been vaccinated or have not been vaccinated, who are in the hospital or in intensive care.
On the other hand, we must be careful: more than 91% of adults are vaccinated. It is logical that more people are being vaccinated in hospitals. But if we compare the same number (how many out of a million vaccinated people are hospitalized and how many out of a million hospitalized people who have not been vaccinated), we can see that the vaccine is most effective.
Proof with maps below. We also see a further increase in the effectiveness of the booster vaccine.
See also The HuffPost: When faced with goiter, the immune system is all or nothing
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